Improving shared decision-making about cancer treatment through design-based data-driven decision-support tools and redesigning care paths: an overview of the 4D PICTURE project.

Background: Patients with cancer often have to make complex decisions about treatment, with the options varying in risk profiles and effects on survival and quality of life. Moreover, inefficient care paths make it hard for patients to participate in shared decision-making. Data-driven decision-support tools have the potential to empower patients, support personalized care, improve health outcomes and promote health equity. However, decision-support tools currently seldom consider quality of life or individual preferences, and their use in clinical practice remains limited, partly because they are not well integrated in patients' care paths. Aim and objectives: The central aim of the 4D PICTURE project is to redesign patients' care paths and develop and integrate evidence-based decision-support tools to improve decision-making processes in cancer care delivery. This article presents an overview of this international, interdisciplinary project. Design methods and analysis: In co-creation with patients and other stakeholders, we will develop data-driven decision-support tools for patients with breast cancer, prostate cancer and melanoma. We will support treatment decisions by using large, high-quality datasets with state-of-the-art prognostic algorithms. We will further develop a conversation tool, the Metaphor Menu, using text mining combined with citizen science techniques and linguistics, incorporating large datasets of patient experiences, values and preferences. We will further develop a promising methodology, MetroMapping, to redesign care paths. We will evaluate MetroMapping and these integrated decision-support tools, and ensure their sustainability using the Nonadoption, Abandonment, Scale-Up, Spread, and Sustainability (NASSS) framework. We will explore the generalizability of MetroMapping and the decision-support tools for other types of cancer and across other EU member states. Ethics: Through an embedded ethics approach, we will address social and ethical issues. Discussion: Improved care paths integrating comprehensive decision-support tools have the potential to empower patients, their significant others and healthcare providers in decision-making and improve outcomes. This project will strengthen health care at the system level by improving its resilience and efficiency.

Improving the cancer patient journey and respecting personal preferences: an overview of the 4D PICTURE project The 4D PICTURE project aims to help cancer patients, their families and healthcare providers better undertstand their options. It supports their treatment and care choices, at each stage of disease, by drawing on large amounts of evidence from different types of European data. The project involves experts from many different specialist areas who are based in nine European countries. The overall aim is to improve the cancer patient journey and ensure personal preferences are respected.

Aetiology, ejection fraction and mortality in chronic heart failure: a mediation analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical decision making in chronic heart failure (CHF) is based primarily on left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and only secondarily on aetiology of the underlying disease. Our aim was to investigate the mediating role of LVEF in the relationship between aetiology and mortality. METHODS: Using data of 2056 Austrian patients with CHF (mean age 57.2 years; mean follow-up 8.8 years), effects of aetiology on LVEF and overall mortality were estimated using multivariable-adjusted linear and Cox regression models. In causal mediation analyses, we decomposed the total effect of aetiology on mortality into direct and indirect (mediated through LVEF) effects. RESULTS: For the analysed aetiologies (dilated (DCM, n=1009) and hypertrophic (HCM, n=89) cardiomyopathy; ischaemic (IHD, n=529) and hypertensive (HHD, n=320) heart disease; cardiac amyloidosis (CA, n=109)), the effect of LVEF on mortality was similar (HR5%-points lower LVEF=1.07, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.10; pinteraction=0.718). HCM and CA were associated with significantly higher, and IHD and DCM with significantly lower LVEF compared with other aetiologies. Compared with respective other aetiologies, the corresponding total effect HRs for mortality were 0.77 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.89), 0.47 (95% CI 0.25 to 0.88), 1.40 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.62), 0.79 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.95) and 2.36 (95% CI 1.81 to 3.08) for DCM, HCM, IHD, HHD and CA, respectively. CA had the highest mortality despite a HRindirect effect of 0.74 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.83). For all other aetiologies, <20% of the total mortality effects were mediated through LVEF. CONCLUSIONS: The direct effect of aetiology on mortality dominates the indirect effect through LVEF. Therefore, clarification of aetiology is as important as measurement of LVEF.

Long-term benefits and harms of early colorectal cancer screening in German individuals with familial cancer risk.

Individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) may benefit from early screening with colonoscopy or immunologic fecal occult blood testing (iFOBT). We systematically evaluated the benefit-harm trade-offs of various screening strategies differing by screening test (colonoscopy or iFOBT), interval (iFOBT: annual/biennial; colonoscopy: 10-yearly) and age at start (30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 55 years) and end of screening (65, 70 and 75 years) offered to individuals identified with familial CRC risk in Germany. A Markov-state-transition model was developed and used to estimate health benefits (CRC-related deaths avoided, life-years gained [LYG]), potential harms (eg, associated with additional colonoscopies) and incremental harm-benefit ratios (IHBR) for each strategy. Both benefits and harms increased with earlier start and shorter intervals of screening. When screening started before age 50, 32-36 CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons were avoided with colonoscopy and 29-34 with iFOBT screening, compared to 29-31 (colonoscopy) and 28-30 (iFOBT) CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons when starting age 50 or older, respectively. For iFOBT screening, the IHBRs expressed as additional colonoscopies per LYG were one (biennial, age 45-65 vs no screening), four (biennial, age 35-65), six (biennial, age 30-70) and 34 (annual, age 30-54; biennial, age 55-75). Corresponding IHBRs for 10-yearly colonoscopy were four (age 55-65), 10 (age 45-65), 15 (age 35-65) and 29 (age 30-70). Offering screening with colonoscopy or iFOBT to individuals with familial CRC risk before age 50 is expected to be beneficial. Depending on the accepted IHBR threshold, 10-yearly colonoscopy or alternatively biennial iFOBT from age 30 to 70 should be recommended for this target group.

Colorectal Cancer Screening for Persons With a Positive Family History­Evaluation of the FARKOR Program for the Secondary Prevention of Colorectal Cancer in Persons Aged 25 to 50.

BACKGROUND: Persons with a positive family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) are more likely than others to develop CRC and are also younger at the onset of the disease. Nonetheless, the German Federal Joint Committee (G-BA, Gemeinsamer Bundes - ausschuss) recommends screening all persons aged 50 and above regardless of their family history. FARKOR was a project supported by the Innovation Fund of the G-BA to study the feasibility, efficacy, and safety of a risk-adapted early detection program for CRC among persons aged 25 to 50 without any specific past medical history. METHODS: Physicians in private practice in Bavaria documented their activities relating to FARKOR online. The FARKOR process comprised a declaration of consent, a simplified family history for CRC, an optional, more comprehensive family history, a counseling session for participatory decision-making on further measures, and various modalities of screening (an immunological fecal occult blood test [iFOBT], colonoscopy, or no screening). Related physician activities outside the FARKOR process were assessed by record linkage between study data and data of the patients' health insurance carriers. RESULTS: The simplified family history was documented in 25 847 persons and positive for CRC in 5769 (22.3%). 3232 persons had a more comprehensive family history, among whom 2054 (63.6%) participated in screening measures. 1595 underwent colonoscopy; 278 persons who had already undergone colonoscopy in the preceding five years were excluded from the analysis. Colonoscopy revealed adenoma in 232 persons (17,6 %), advanced adenoma in 78 (5.9%) and carcinoma in 4 (0.3%). There were no serious complications. CONCLUSION: The detection rates in this study corresponded to those of persons aged 55 to 59 in the current early detection program. Despite numerous problems in the performance of the study (inconsistencies in documentation, external performance of screening measures on program participants), the results support the feasibility of a risk-adapted early detection program in the young target population with a family history of CRC.

Stool DNA testing for early detection of colorectal cancer: systematic review using the HTA Core Model® for Rapid Relative Effectiveness Assessment.

Background: Stool DNA testing for early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) is a non-invasive technology with the potential to supplement established CRC screening tests. The aim of this health technology assessment was to evaluate effectiveness and safety of currently CE-marked stool DNA tests, compared to other CRC tests in CRC screening strategies in an asymptomatic screening population. Methods: The assessment was carried out following the guidelines of the European Network for Health Technology Assessment (EUnetHTA). This included a systematic literature search in MED-LINE, Cochrane and EMBASE in 2018. Manufacturers were asked to provide additional data. Five patient interviews helped assessing potential ethical or social aspects and patients' experiences and preferences. We assessed the risk of bias using QUADAS-2, and the quality of the body of evidence using GRADE. Results: We identified three test accuracy studies, two of which investigated a multitarget stool DNA test (Cologuard®, compared fecal immunochemical test (FIT)) and one a combined DNA stool assay (ColoAlert®, compared to guaiac-based fecal occult blood test (gFOBT), Pyruvate Kinase Isoenzyme Type M2 (M2-PK) and combined gFOBT/M2-PK). We found five published surveys on patient satisfaction. No primary study investigating screening effects on CRC incidence or on overall mortality was found. Both stool DNA tests showed in direct comparison higher sensitivity for the detection of CRC and (advanced) adenoma compared to FIT, or gFOBT, respectively, but had lower specificity. However, these comparative results may depend on the exact type of FIT used. The reported test failure rates were higher for stool DNA testing than for FIT. The certainty of evidence was moderate to high for Cologuard® studies, and low to very low for the ColoAlert® study which refers to a former version of the product and yielded no direct evidence on the test accuracy for ad-vanced versus non-advanced adenoma. Conclusions: ColoAlert® is the only stool DNA test currently sold in Europe and is available at a lower price than Cologuard®, but reliable evidence is lacking. A screening study including the current product version of ColoAlert® and suitable comparators would, therefore, help evaluate the effectiveness of this screening option in a European context.

Occupational therapy for persons with cognitive impairments.

Background: Damage to the central nervous system can occur in adulthood, for example, due to stroke, trauma, tumours, or chronic diseases. After damage to the central nervous system, cognitive impairments occur in addition to physical limitations. Occupational therapy is most often prescribed for neurological diagnoses, including stroke and traumatic brain injury. Methods: The health technology assessment (HTA) report this HTA article is based on investigates the clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and patient-related, social and ethical aspects of occupational therapy for patients with cognitive impairments compared to no occupational therapy. In addition, the effects of different occupational therapy interventions with and without cognitive components were compared in an explorative overview. Patients with moderate or severe dementia are excluded from the assessment. Systematic overviews, that is, systematic reviews of systematic reviews, were conducted. Results: For the evaluation of clinical effectiveness, a total of nine systematic reviews were included. No systematic review was identified for the assessment of costs or cost-effectiveness. Five systematic reviews were included for the assessment of patient and social aspects. For the assessment of clinical effectiveness compared with no occupational therapy, five systematic reviews comprising 20 randomised controlled trials with a total of 1,316 subjects reported small positive effects for the outcomes "global cognitive function" and "activities of daily living" as well as a non-quantified positive effect on the outcomes "health-related quality of life" and "behavioural control". No effect was found for individual components of cognition and measures of perception. The quality of the evidence for all outcomes is low due to a high risk of bias. In the supplementary presentations, no positive effects could be demonstrated on the basis of the available evidence. The quality of this evidence was not assessed. For the assessment of patient and social aspects, five systematic reviews on patients with a stroke or a traumatic brain injury - without specification regarding cognitive deficits or studies with their relatives - were included. It was reported that patients and family caregivers go through different phases of rehabilitation in which the discharge home is a decisive turning point. The discharge home represents a crucial breaking point. Regaining an active, self-determining role is a process that requires therapists to find the right level of support for patients and relatives. For the assessment of ethical aspects, nine documents were included. We identified ethical problem-solving models for occupational therapy and 16 ethical aspects in occupational therapy for cognitive deficits. The central theme of the analysis is the limited autonomy due to the consequences of the disease as well as the resulting tensions with those treating the patient. Conclusions: Based on this systematic overview, it can neither be proven nor excluded with certainty that occupational therapy for cognitive impairment is an effective therapy for adult patients with central nervous system injuries compared to no occupational therapy. There is a lack of randomised trials with sufficient sample size, well-defined interventions, and comparable concomitant therapies in the control groups, but there is also a lack of well-designed observational studies in routine care and health economic studies. The identified systematic reviews on patient and social aspects provide information on the needs of patients after stroke or traumatic brain injury and their relatives, but there is a lack of studies on this aspect in German-speaking countries. For the ethical assessment, in addition to the identified theoretical models for solving ethical conflicts in occupational therapy, more empirical studies on ethical aspects with patients with cognitive deficits and their relatives as well as occupational therapists are needed.

Patient' and social aspects related to complementary mistletoe therapy in patients with breast cancer: A systematic review commissioned by the German agency for Health Technology Assessment.

PURPOSE: To mitigate side effects of conventional cancer care and improve quality of life, many patients with breast cancer in German-speaking countries opt for mistletoe therapy in addition to standard treatment. To understand the value for users, we evaluated the domain "Patient and Social aspects" in a health technology assessment on complementary mistletoe therapy in patients with breast cancer. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted according to PRISMA guidelines. Fifteen electronic databases and the internet were searched. Qualitative studies were analyzed using qualitative content analysis; quantitative studies were systematically summarized in evidence tables. RESULTS: Seventeen studies out of 1203 screened publications with 4765 patients and 869 healthcare professionals were included in the review. The median proportion of patients using mistletoe therapy was 26.7% (range: 7.3-46.3%). Predictors for use were younger age and higher educational level. Main reasons for patients' use of mistletoe therapy were to leave nothing untried and to be actively involved in the treatment process. Reasons against use were related to a lack of knowledge or uncertainty regarding effectiveness and safety. Physicians mainly aimed to support the patient's physical condition as main reason for use and a lack of resources and knowledge as main reason against use. CONCLUSION: Mistletoe therapy was commonly used in the treatment of breast cancer despite a lack of scientific knowledge among patients and physicians. Transparent communication on motivation for use and its potential effect enables realistic expectations. Relatively small samples of mistletoe therapy users limit the representativeness and validity of our results.

Decision-analytic evaluation of the comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of strategies to prevent breast and ovarian cancer in German women with BRCA-1/2 mutations.

BACKGROUND: Women with inherited mutations in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes have increased lifetime risks for developing breast and/or ovarian cancer and may develop these cancers around the age of 30 years. Therefore, prevention of breast and ovarian cancer in these women may need to start relatively early in life. In this study we systematically evaluate the long-term effectiveness and cost effectiveness of different prevention strategies for breast and ovarian cancer in women with BRCA-1/2 mutation in Germany. METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model simulating lifetime breast and ovarian cancer development in BRCA-1/2 carriers was developed. Different strategies including intensified surveillance (IS), prophylactic bilateral mastectomy (PBM), and prophylactic bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (PBSO) alone or in combination at different ages were evaluated. German clinical, epidemiological, and economic (in 2022 Euro) data were used. Outcomes included cancer incidences, mortality, life years (LYs), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). We adopted the German health-care system perspective and discounted costs and health effects with 3% annually. RESULTS: All intervention strategies are more effective and less costly than IS alone. Prevention with PBM plus PBSO at age 30 maximizes life expectancy with 6.3 LYs gained, whereas PBM at age 30 with delayed PBSO at age 35 improves quality of life with 11.1 QALYs gained, when compared to IS alone. A further delay of PBSO was associated with lower effectiveness. Both strategies are cost effective with ICERs significantly below 10,000 EUR/LYG or QALY. CONCLUSION: Based on our results, PBM at age 30 plus PBSO between age 30 and 40 prolongs life and is cost effective in women with BRCA-1/2 mutations in Germany. Serial preventive surgeries with delayed PBSO potentially improve quality of life for women. However, delaying PBM and/or PBSO further may lead to increased mortality and reduced QALYs.

Screening for colorectal cancer : A recommendation statement of the Austrian National Committee for Cancer Screening.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer is the fourth most common cancer in Austria. To date, colorectal cancer screening in Austria remains opportunistic and includes colonoscopy or stool-based blood tests. The Austrian National Committee for Cancer Screening developed evidence-based recommendations for a nationwide organized colorectal cancer screening program. METHODS: The methodological framework followed the approach of the United States Preventive Services Task Force. The evidence base underlying the newly developed recommendations comprised a review of the existing published evidence and a decision analytic model tailored to the Austrian context. Using a structured process, committee members considered 1) the magnitude of the net benefit of each screening strategy, 2) the certainty of evidence, and 3) the level of acceptance of the interventions among the target population. RECOMMENDATIONS: The Austrian National Committee for Cancer Screening recommends the implementation of a nationwide organized colorectal cancer screening program for all adults aged 45-75 years. For persons 65 years or older, screening decisions should occur on an individual basis in accordance with a person's overall health, prior screening history, and preferences. Specifically, the committee recommends either a 10-year screening colonoscopy or biennial fecal immunochemical tests with colonoscopy following a positive result, with both screening strategies considered equivalent. Each citizen should be able to make an informed decision about their preferred screening method. Switching between the two screening strategies should be possible. Following an unremarkable colonoscopy, screening by fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is only required after 10 years. Screening recommendations apply only to asymptomatic persons at average risk for colorectal cancer. The screening program must be pilot tested, and accompanied by a public information campaign, formative evaluation, quality assurance, and data collection.

Determinants of low health-related quality of life in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes: EUMDS Registry study.

Patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) frequently experience a significant symptom burden, which reduces health-related quality of life (HRQoL). We aimed to identify determinants of low HRQoL in patients recently diagnosed with MDS, for guiding early intervention strategies. We evaluated longitudinal data in 2205 patients with MDS during their first year after diagnosis. Median values of EQ-5D 3-level (EQ-5D-3L) index (0.78) and visual analog scale (VAS) score (0.70) were used as thresholds for low HRQoL. In addition, the 5 dimensions of EQ-5D-3L were analyzed for impairments (any level vs "no problem" category). After multiple imputation of missing values, we used generalized estimating equations (GEE) to estimate odds ratios (OR) for univariable determinant screening (P < .15), and to subsequently derive multivariable models for low HRQoL with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Multivariable GEE analysis showed the following independent determinants (OR, 95% CI) for low EQ-5D index: increased age (60-75 years: 1.33, 1.01-1.75; >75: 1.84, 1.39-2.45), female sex (1.70, 1.43-2.03), high serum ferritin level (≥1000 vs ≤300 µg/L: 1.41, 1.06-1.87), comorbidity burden (per unit: 1.11, 1.02-1.20), and reduced Karnofsky performance status (KPS, per 10 units: 0.62, 0.58-0.67). For low VAS score, additional determinants were transfusion dependence (1.53, 1.03-2.29), low hemoglobin <10 g/dL (1.34, 1.12-1.61), and high body mass index (≥30 vs 23-29.9 kg/m2: 1.26, 1.02-1.57). Sex, KPS, comorbidity burden, hemoglobin count, and transfusion burden were determinants for all EQ-5D dimensions. Low HRQoL is determined by multiple factors, which should be considered in the management and shared decision making of patients with MDS. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00600860.

Raising the standards of patient-centered outcomes research in myelodysplastic syndromes: Clinical utility and validation of the subscales of the QUALMS from the MDS-RIGHT project.

BACKGROUND: Clinical decision-making for patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) is challenging, and both disease and treatment effects heavily impact health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of these patients. Therefore, disease-specific HRQoL measures can be critical to harness the patient voice in MDS research. METHODS: We report a prospective international validation study of the Quality of Life in Myelodysplasia Scale (QUALMS) with a main focus on providing information on the psychometric characteristics of its three subscales: physical burden (QUALMS-P), emotional burden (QUALMS-E), and benefit finding (QUALMS-BF). The analysis is based on patients enrolled from three European countries and Israel, participating to the MDS-RIGHT Project. The scale structure and psychometric properties of the QUALMS were assessed. RESULTS: Overall, 270 patients with a median age of 74 years were analyzed and the majority of them (60.3%) had a low MDS-Comorbidity Index score. Results of the confirmatory factor analysis supported the underlying scale structure of the QUALMS, which, in addition to a total score, includes three subscales: QUALMS-P, QUALMS-E, and the QUALMS-BF. The QUALMS-P exhibited the highest Cronbach's alpha coefficients. Discriminant validity analysis indicated good results with the QUALMS-P and QUALMS-E distinguishing between patients with different performance status, comorbidity, anemia, and transfusion dependency status. No floor and ceiling effects were observed. Responsiveness to change analysis supported the validity of the measure. Patients with a hemoglobin (Hb) level of <11 g/dL at study entry, who subsequently showed an improvement in their Hb levels, also reported a mean score change of 9 and 8 points (scales ranging between 0 and 100) in the expected direction of the QUALMS-E and QUALMS-P, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides additional validation data on the QUALMS from the international MDS-RIGHT Project. The use of this disease-specific HRQoL measure may contribute to raise quality standards of patient-centered outcomes research in MDS.

[Testicular Cancer Screening in Men Aged 16 Years and Older: IQWiG ThemenCheck Health Technology Assessment Report on Medical, Economic, Social, Ethical, Legal and Organisational Aspects]. / Hodenkrebsscreening bei Männern ab 16 Jahren: IQWiG ThemenCheck Health Technology Assessment-Bericht zu medizinischen, ökonomischen, sozialen, ethischen, rechtlichen und organisatorischen Aspekten.

BACKGROUND: Testicular cancer occurs mainly in young men between 25 and 45 years and is the most common cancer at this age. Possible testicular cancer early detection measures, clinical palpation and scrotal ultrasound (CUS) or testicular self-examination (TSE) in asymptomatic men aged 16 years and older, could perhaps avoid deaths and aggressive late therapies. Therefore, we investigated whether these measures have an additional benefit compared to the current situation. Ethical, legal, social and organisational aspects were considered as well. METHODS: The methodology of this review follows IQWiG's "Allgemeine[n] Methoden Version 5.0". In addition, to estimate the theoretically possible benefits and potential harms of screening, a supplementary presentation was used for the benefit assessment based on published data from tumour registries and data on predictive values from diagnostic studies. RESULTS: No intervention studies were identified, therefore evidence-based statements on additional benefit or harm of the studied interventions could not be made. The epidemiological data showed that per 100,000 men participating in screening annually, a maximum of 1.2 advanced tumours and 0.4 deaths would have been preventable. Harm calculations suggest that with CUS of 100,000 men, 1 to 22 unnecessary testicular exposures or removals might be expected, with TSE it would be 2 cases. However, these data on the possible harm of screening are subject to great uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: There are no intervention studies demonstrating that the benefit of testicular cancer screening in men aged 16 years and older outweighs the harm. The maximum possible additional benefit is low and chances of detection and cure are good even without screening. At present, testicular cancer screening cannot be recommended.

DNA methylation-based detection and prediction of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and invasive cervical cancer with the WID™-qCIN test.

BACKGROUND: Cervical screening using primary human papilloma virus (HPV) testing and cytology is being implemented in several countries. Cytology as triage for colposcopy referral suffers from several shortcomings. HPV testing overcomes some of these but lacks specificity in women under 30. Here, we aimed to develop and validate an automatable triage test that is highly sensitive and specific independently of age and sample heterogeneity, and predicts progression to CIN3+ in HPV+ patients. RESULTS: The WID™-qCIN, assessing three regions in human genes DPP6, RALYL, and GSX1, was validated in both a diagnostic (case-control) and predictive setting (nested case-control), in a total of 761 samples. Using a predefined threshold, the sensitivity of the WID™-qCIN test was 100% and 78% to detect invasive cancer and CIN3, respectively. Sensitivity to detect CIN3+ was 65% and 83% for women < and ≥ 30 years of age. The specificity was 90%. Importantly, the WID™-qCIN test identified 52% of ≥ 30-year-old women with a cytology negative (cyt-) index sample who were diagnosed with CIN3 1-4 years after sample donation. CONCLUSION: We identified suitable DNAme regions in an epigenome-wide discovery using HPV+ controls and CIN3+ cases and established the WID™-qCIN, a PCR-based DNAme test. The WID™-qCIN test has a high sensitivity and specificity that may outperform conventional cervical triage tests and can in an objective, cheap, and scalable fashion identify most women with and at risk of (pre-)invasive cervical cancer. However, evaluation was limited to case-control settings and future studies will assess performance and generalisability in a randomised controlled trial.

Causal analyses with target trial emulation for real-world evidence removed large self-inflicted biases: systematic bias assessment of ovarian cancer treatment effectiveness.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Drawing causal conclusions from real-world data (RWD) poses methodological challenges and risk of bias. We aimed to systematically assess the type and impact of potential biases that may occur when analyzing RWD using the case of progressive ovarian cancer. METHODS: We retrospectively compared overall survival with and without second-line chemotherapy (LOT2) using electronic medical records. Potential biases were determined using directed acyclic graphs. We followed a stepwise analytic approach ranging from crude analysis and multivariable-adjusted Cox model up to a full causal analysis using a marginal structural Cox model with replicates emulating a reference randomized controlled trial (RCT). To assess biases, we compared effect estimates (hazard ratios [HRs]) of each approach to the HR of the reference trial. RESULTS: The reference trial showed an HR for second line vs. delayed therapy of 1.01 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.82-1.25). The corresponding HRs from the RWD analysis ranged from 0.51 for simple baseline adjustments to 1.41 (95% CI: 1.22-1.64) accounting for immortal time bias with time-varying covariates. Causal trial emulation yielded an HR of 1.12 (95% CI: 0.96-1.28). CONCLUSION: Our study, using ovarian cancer as an example, shows the importance of a thorough causal design and analysis if one is expecting RWD to emulate clinical trial results.

Additional treatment with mistletoe extracts for patients with breast cancer compared to conventional cancer therapy alone - efficacy and safety, costs and cost-effectiveness, patients and social aspects, and ethical assessment.

Background: Chemotherapy is often used in the treatment of breast cancer in women. Side effects such as diarrhea, fatigue, hair loss, fever or disturbances in blood formation impair the women's quality of life. An essential treatment goal of the accompanying mistletoe therapy (MT) used in complementary medicine is to improve the health-related quality of life during cancer therapy. Aim and methods: The HTA report on which this article is based examines the medical efficacy and safety, costs and cost-effectiveness, patient and social aspects, and ethical aspects of MT in women with breast cancer. Systematic reviews were conducted for this purpose. The search period of the literature search ranged from 2004 to October 2020. Results: A total of 2 evidence-based medical guidelines, 3 randomized trials assessing efficacy and 1 additional non-randomized intervention trial, as well as 3 observational studies assessing safety, a cost analysis, 12 cross-sectional studies on patient aspects and 17 articles on ethical evaluation were included. Improvements in health-related quality of life compared to the control group were small to moderate. Due to the high risk of bias in the studies, it is possible that the difference is not caused by MT. One study with a small sample size showed no effect on progression-free survival after 5 years. Studies on the effect of MT on overall survival are lacking. In seven studies, local skin reactions of low and moderate severity were reported in a median of 25% (range 5 to 94%) of patients, and mild to moderate systemic reactions in a median of 2% (range 0 to 8%) of patients. A comparative cost analysis from Germany reported significantly lower medical costs within 5 years after surgery for patients with MT than for patients without MT, but the underlying observational study did not control for systematic bias. With regard to patient aspects, the frequency of use and the reasons for use from the patient's or practitioner's point of view were mainly investigated. A median of 25% (range 7 to 46%) of patients with breast cancer and 29% (range 29 to 79%) of treatment providers use MT. The main motivations of patients for use were to reduce side effects, strengthen the immune system and take an active role in the treatment process. Patients felt insufficiently advised. Studies on other aspects are lacking. The ethical evaluation was able to identify 6 overarching themes; the central challenge is the insufficient evidence on efficacy and safety.

Familial hypercholesterolemia: A systematic review of modeling studies on screening interventions.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: FH is still underdiagnosed. Cost-effectiveness results of preventive screening strategies vary. We aimed at systematically assessing the benefits, harms and cost effectiveness of screening for familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) and at providing an overview of the main characteristics and methodological approaches of applied decision-analytic models. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted in MEDLINE, EconLit, CRD-databases and the CEA-registry for FH screening starting 2012. Earlier studies were included from a published systematic review. Results were reported in standardized semi-quantitative evidence tables. Costs were converted to current euros. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were recalculated according to economic guidelines. RESULTS: Out of our 211 retrieved studies, eight were included in the review in addition to six studies from an earlier review. Studies were conducted in Europe (UK, The Netherlands, Spain, Poland), USA and Australia evaluating cascade (CS), opportunistic (OS), universal screening (UniS), or combinations using genetic testing, clinical criteria or combinations. Studies evaluating only CS identified strategies with an ICER of up to 37,100 EUR/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) but some strategies were dominated depending on test combinations. UniS of newborns in combination with CS had an ICER≤15,000 EUR/QALY for sequential cholesterol-genetic screening. In other studies, UniS was dominated by OS/CS. CONCLUSIONS: Our systematic review demonstrates the values of FH screening and provides an overview of potentially relevant screening strategies to be tested using a decision-analytic model for the respective country or region. Future research is needed on the transferability of results to other countries and modeling spillover effects to newborns.

Estimating Treatment-Switching Bias in a Randomized Clinical Trial of Ovarian Cancer Treatment: Combining Causal Inference with Decision-Analytic Modeling.

BACKGROUND: Bevacizumab is efficacious in delaying ovarian cancer progression and controlling ascites. The ICON7 trial showed a significant benefit in overall survival for bevacizumab, whereas the GOG-218 trial did not. GOG-218 allowed control group patients to switch to bevacizumab upon progression, which may have biased the results. Lack of data on switching behavior prevented the application of g-methods to adjust for switching. The objective of this study was to apply decision-analytic modeling to estimate the impact of switching bias on causal treatment-effect estimates. METHODS: We developed a causal decision-analytic Markov model (CDAMM) to emulate the GOG-218 trial and estimate overall survival. CDAMM input parameters were based on data from randomized clinical trials and the published literature. Overall switching proportion was based on GOG-218 trial information, whereas the proportion switching with and without ascites was estimated using calibration. We estimated the counterfactual treatment effect that would have been observed had no switching occurred by denying switching in the CDAMM. RESULTS: The survival curves generated by the CDAMM matched well with the ones reported in the GOG-218 trial. The survival curve correcting for switching showed an estimated bias such that 79% of the true treatment effect could not be observed in the GOG-218 trial. Results were most sensitive to changes in the proportion progressing with severe ascites and mortality. LIMITATIONS: We used a simplified model structure and based model parameters on published data and assumptions. Robustness of the CDAMM was tested and model assumptions transparently reported. CONCLUSIONS: Medical-decision science methods may be merged with empirical methods of causal inference to integrate data from other sources where empirical data are not sufficient. We recommend collecting sufficient information on switching behavior when switching cannot be avoided.

Core set of patient-reported outcomes for myelodysplastic syndromes: an EUMDS Delphi study involving patients and hematologists.

Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are relevant and valuable end points in the care of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). However, a consensus-based selection of PROs for MDS, derived by both patients and hematologists, is lacking. We aimed to develop a core set of PROs for patients with MDS as part of the prospective European LeukemiaNet MDS (EUMDS) Registry. According to international guidelines, candidate PROs were identified from a comprehensive literature search of MDS studies. Overall, 40 PROs were selected and evaluated in a two-round Delphi survey by 40 patients with MDS and 38 hematologists in the first round and 38 patients and 32 hematologists in the second round. Based on an agreement scale and predefined inclusion criteria, both patients and hematologists selected "general quality of life" as a core PRO. Hematologists also selected "transfusion-dependency burden" and "ability to work/activities of daily living" as core PROs. The second Delphi round increased PRO rating agreements. Statistically significant rating differences between patients and hematologists were observed for 28 PROs (Mann-Whitney U test; P < .05) in the first round and for 19 PROs in the second round, with "disease knowledge" and "confidence in health care services" rated notably higher by patients. The overall mean PRO ratings correlation between the 2 groups was moderate (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient = 0.5; P < .05). This first consensus on a core set of PROs jointly developed by patients and hematologists forms the basis for patient-centered care in daily practice and clinical research.

The anemia-independent impact of myelodysplastic syndromes on health-related quality of life.

Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are in the majority of cases characterized by anemia. Both anemia and MDS per se may directly contribute to impairments in health-related quality of life (HRQoL). In this study, we aimed to investigate the anemia-independent impact of MDS on HRQoL. We evaluated participants (≥ 50 years) from the large population-based Lifelines cohort (N = 44,694, mean age 59.0 ± 7.4 years, 43.6% male) and the European MDS Registry (EUMDS) (N = 1538, mean age 73.4 ± 9.0 years, 63.0% male), which comprises a cohort of lower-risk MDS patients. To enable comparison concerning HRQoL, SF-36 scores measured in Lifelines were converted to EQ-5D-3L index (range 0-1) and dimension scores. Lower-risk MDS patients had significantly lower HRQoL than those from the Lifelines cohort, as illustrated in both the index score and in the five different dimensions. Multivariable linear regression analysis demonstrated that MDS had an adjusted total impact on the EQ-5D index score (B = - 0.12, p < 0.001) and an anemia-independent "direct" impact (B = - 0.10, p < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed an anemia-independent impact of MDS in the dimension mobility, self-care, usual activities, and anxiety/depression (all except pain/discomfort). This study demonstrates that the major part of the negative impact of lower-risk MDS on HRQoL is not mediated via anemia. Thus, the therapeutic focus should include treatment strategies directed at underlying pathogenic mechanisms to improve HRQoL, rather than aiming predominantly at increasing hemoglobin levels.